Monday, February 19, 2024

Did Racism create Capitalism?

Back in 2022 I invited Ibram X. Kendi, author of "How to be an Antiracist' to join me at Valencia to debate his contention that captialism was born out of racism. He did not make it, but here is a speech you might find useful to answer this imporant question.

Sunday, February 18, 2024

The Economics of Trump's NATO remarks

In case you missed it, recently former President Donald Trump stated that if he were in office once again he would "encourage" Russia to invade members of NATO who are, by his estimation, not paying enough for their security. The chart below shows the percentage of GDP each NATO member pays toward NATO defense. While there has been a stated expectation that each nation pays 2% of its GDP towards the protection of this organization, most nations fall a bit short. To Trump, this means they are not paying their bills and thus, should be left unprotected should a future invasion take place.
I would like to offer Donald Trump two thoughts. First, if, for example, Russia took you up on this and invaded Germany while you were President, the other NATO members would be obliged to come to Germany's defense. Think for a moment what this would mean for the global economy. Surely, exports from the U.S. to NATO nations would collapse during this quasi-World War. This means less money for the U.S. and a shrinking U.S. economy. Moreover, this invasion would lead to far fewer goods coming from NATO to the U.S., triggering a drop in our aggregate supply and higher inflation. Meanwhile, this global recession would cause tax revenues to plumment, social welfare spending to rise and by the time the dust settled the U.S. would lose far more money from leaving NATO to fend for itself than we are currently losing by subsidizing the nations that fall short of the 2% goal. In short, Trump's remarks reflect horrible economic policy. The second thought is this. Consider why NATO was formed to begin with. Allowing rogue states like Russia and an increasingly militarized China to view the United States as a potential bystander is an invitation to World War III. Plus, his bluster most likely has many NATO members thinking (rationally so), "O.K., fine. See who comes to help the United States if you get into a war in the future." One can only hope that there are a few adults in the Trump room who can convince him of the idiocy of making his recent comments the official stance of the United States.

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Biden's Memory vs. Trump's Narcissism

It has been, for any of you that check this blog from time to time, nearly 2 years since I have given enough of a damn to write anything. You have not missed my Op-Ed pieces for the Orlando Sentinel, or any other paper for that matter, because I no longer choose to waste my time on the rapidly eroding quality of print journalism in this country (the Wall Street Journal being one exception...). That said, I wanted to chime in on the state of politics in America in the winter of 2024 as we slog towards what might be the most embarrassing elections in our nation's history. It goes without saying, but I will say it anyway, that we have, from the left, President Joe Biden who seems to care so little about our country that he is willing to run for re-election despite overwhelming visual and audio evidence that he is incapable of filling this office until he is 86 - or for that matter, 82 - years of age. It is somewhat shocking and at minimum, disturbing to watch Mr. Biden struggle to communicate about anything. I am 57 and sometimes (often) struggle to remember what the best lines are to finish a thought, or a lecture. Therefore, I do have sympathy for a man who has a horrible job that requires mental alertness on a scale few can fathom. It is for that reason that my sympathy turns to anger and bewilderment that he is willing to risk huge errors in judgment and a possible Constitutional crisis all to, in his words, "finish the job I started." How the Democrats save us from his nomination, I do not know. Then there is the potentially far more terrifying prospect of the re-election of Donald Trump. In 1991 I changed my voter registration from Republican to Libertarian because I realized that George H.W. Bush had taken Ronald Reagan's party and flushed it down the quasi-liberal toilet. His son gave us more "Compassionate Conservatism" at the expense of the budget and good economic policy and then gave us a War on Terror that gutted our founding principles. No to be outdone, Donald Trump has succeeded in ENDING all signs of what the Republican party used to be. From his disastrous and idiotic trade war with China to profligate spending, cruel and irrational immigration policies and complete refutation of the fact that America needs allies, Donald Trump and his Constitution-ignoring minions are now poised for what will be the 2025-2029 "Revenge Tour". Make no mistake about it, a second Trump term will be dominated by a 78-82 year old narcissist who will be hell-bent on destroying everyone - and every institution - that dared to tell him that he was not re-elected in 2020 or that he was unfit to be president ever again. This revenge tour will also most likely be conducted in an environment where China will once again be targeted, and Russia will be emboldened. I would not be shocked if his outsized view of his own greatness and mission will lead to armed conflict on a scale we have not seen in decades. For the past two years when people have asked me my view on where we are as a nation I have said, "Jimmy Crack Corn". For older readers you will know that in the song bearing that phrase, the next line is...."and I don't care." I really wish I still cared as much about our country as I used to. I still love the idea of what our nation was supposed to become. Ben Franklin was asked by a citizen, "So, Mr. Franklin, what kind of country did you create for us?", shortly after the signing of the Declaration of Independence. His answer? "A Republic, if we can keep it." I think Mr. Franklin - and other Founders - knew that the moment the ink dried on that parchment paper, the clock was ticking on this republic. The ticking has sped up because the American people have become so ignorant, polarized, spoiled and arrogant that we have selected "leaders" who are an embarrassment to the men and women who valued our liberty back in the day.

Friday, June 10, 2022

How to stop Stagflation now

 


The latest inflation data was released on June 10
th and the news is getting worse.   Prices increased 8.6% in May – the largest increase since the country started Christmas shopping in 1981. Making matters worse is the fact that the economy contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022.

For those of you who are new to this type of party – meaning you are under the age of 50 – this is called stagflation, and it is the worst of all economic developments.

Stagflation first reared its ugly head in the United States in 1971 and stayed there for over a decade.

Nixon tried wage and price controls (see Elizabeth Warren’s current call for the same) only to create shortages and black markets.

Jimmy Carter tried to spend his way out of trouble, only to see the ‘Misery Index’ - the sum of inflation and unemployment – reach a record that has never been broken.

Now it is Joe Biden’s turn to either look like a savior or share the dunce cap worn by his predecessors.

If he is serious about fighting stagflation – without seeing a Federal Reserve Bank created recession, do it for him – he needs to do just one thing.   That is, he must immediately take measures to increase the overall supply of goods and services in this country.  To do that, he must ignore his party, overturn Trump’s bad ideas and have the courage to be unpopular until non-inflationary economic growth reappears.

First, President Biden has to inform the climate change zealots that now is not the time to worry about how much ice is in the Artic in the year 2417.    He should announce, immediately, that permits for oil drilling on federal lands that have gathered dust for the past two years will be approved while all federal regulations that are currently rushing us towards a fossil fuel-free society will be tabled.     Notice that as gas prices have crept towards $5 per gallon, the oil companies are not acting like they used to.   In the past, high gas prices would have led to a flurry of production increases everywhere crude can be found. 

Not now.   Biden and his climate change minions have scared the oil and gas industry into sitting on proven reserves and barely budging the production needle.  He needs to tell them – yesterday – to drill, drill, drill.   This will help increase supplies, lower prices and offset what has been lost from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Second, he needs to open the borders – and they need to be wide open.   There are currently over 2 million fewer immigrants in the U.S. than we would normally have because of Trump’s lousy understanding of the value immigration has in a modern economy. That, plus the slowdown that occurred during the height of the pandemic has created a terrible labor shortage that has fueled skyrocketing prices for homes, food and everything else.     We need more people and since Americans do not seem eager to go back to work, we need to get them from anywhere and everywhere.

Third, Mr. Biden needs to call off Donald Trump’s trade war with the planet and announce that there will be pressure on Congress to eliminate all tariffs on all goods that are produced in any country on the planet that wants to sell to us.   The elimination of tariffs would help offset a great deal of the supply-chain issues that have kept prices high and would create more competition, lower prices and economic growth.

Finally, while there is nothing Joe Biden can do to undo his inflationary $1.9 trillion stimulus package from 2021, there is a message he can send to Wall Street that would be helpful.   That is, that government spending – across the board – will be cut.  That means corporate welfare, social welfare and every other category in between in order to show some measure of inflation-fighting fiscal discipline.

If all this sounds like some ridiculous fairy tale that would never happen, well, that is true.

That is why many economists are now saying that this decade – yes, the decade – is going to look a lot like the 1970’s, minus the polyester and disco music.

Saturday, February 19, 2022

Paul Bell - Legendary Oklahoma football coach - and father figure

 Today, Paul Bell, my high school football coach in Hugo, Oklahoma (1981-83) passed away.

Words cannot describe how much Coach Bell meant to me and the thousands of other young people he impacted during his time as an educator and coach.

In the 1970's he was the coach of Eufaula, OK high school where he shaped the careers of legends like J.C. Watts and the Selmon brothers.

The number of All-State and All-American players he coached is staggering.   He had players who ended up in the NFL Hall of Fame and who were considered candidates for President of the United States.

But he also had a far greater impact on the players he coached by being a true father figure.

Eastern and Southeastern Oklahoma is a hard part of the world to grow up in.   When I was a kid, the fathers of that era were not the type to hug a lot or say "I love you" with great, or any, frequency.

Paul Bell was different.

It was not uncommon for him to finish an important football, or life lesson, and look you right in the eye and say, "I love you."  

You knew pretty quickly that he meant it by the way he fought for us, taught us and molded us into men.

The molding could be tough as hell though.

Coach Bell grew up in Depression-era Oklahoma, worked in the oil fields, served in the military and was a champion boxer and undersized guard for his national championship college football team.  He was a hard-nosed, no-nonsense man that I seriously doubt many of today's NFL, college or highschool kids could have tolerated.

He was not shy about loudly correcting stupid things we did and did not tolerate laziness.  

From his two-a-day practices in Oklahoma's summer to his fourth quarter drills that made you wish you were 1,000 miles from his practice field, when he put us through conditioning drills you knew it was meant to last a lifetime.

And a lifetime it has lasted.

There have been many times when I have been in the proverbial 4th quarter of work, parenting, coaching or being a husband.   I cannot count the number of times that I have felt Coach Bell's influence when I needed to finish strong or outwork someone else.   His tough love shaped my character and helped me understand the difference between excellence and mediocrity.

Late in his life I would take my sons to his home and he treated them like they were his own.  He laughed with them, showed them football drills and asked them questions about their interests and their lives without ever bragging about himself.

He also never discussed something with me or any other player that is also a testament to his character. Coach Bell was let go by Hugo after three seasons.   Years later we found out that one of the the biggest reasons for his dismissal was his decision to have the first African-American quarterback in school history take the reins for our team.  This was a hugely unpopular decision with the people in Hugo who had power and influence over the school board even though it was the right one for our team.  That quarterback ended up taking Hugo to back-to-back state playoff appearances his junior and senior year.

This, and countless other stories about him are sure to circulate in the days ahead.

Paul Bell's legacy is one of character, discipline and dedication to young people while showing them it is fine for a tough guy to show love and kindess at the same time.

Thank you, Coach Bell.

I love you too....


Tuesday, January 18, 2022

How President Biden can Fight Inflation

What follows is my Op-Ed in today's Orlando Sentinel

___

Readers of this paper who are under the age of 50 do not recall the last time the United States experienced a rapid increase in the price of, well, everything. 

Recently the latest inflation data was released, and the report was staggering.  Last month, prices rose by 7% - the largest increase since 1982.  This figure represents an acceleration of upward pressure on prices that has been taking place since the end of the short-lived, but severe 2020 recession. 


Left unchecked, every American who receives an increase in their wage or salary in 2022 better hope that it approaches double digits, otherwise they will only be able to say, “Thanks for cutting my pay” to their employer. 


Yet, it does not have to be this way.   There are steps the Biden Administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank can take today to prevent a disastrous repeat of the 1971-82 period when a new term, “stagflation” reared its ugly head. 


Inflation takes place when the demand for goods and services increases at a faster pace than suppliers can produce.  Stagflation occurs when the overall supply of goods and services declines.   Stagflation is the worst of all economic evils because when supply falls throughout a nation it not only pushes up prices, but it also leads to a recession and higher unemployment. 


What we are seeing today is, for now, demand increasing extremely fast while supply is slightly falling, or depending on the sector, barely increasing. 


This problem has been created by several sources.   


First, the Trump and Biden Administration, to fight the economic dislocation caused by the pandemic, sent out trillions of dollars in stimulus checks, whether you needed it or not, to boost demand and shore up consumer and business confidence.  That coincided with drastically expanded unemployment benefits and monthly tax credits paid out to families, even if their finances were on solid footing. 


Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve Bank, adjusting for inflation, has provided the nation with negative interest rates throughout 2021 and today.  If you have a 3% mortgage payment, with inflation of 7% you are paying negative 4% interest to your bank.   This has help fuel an explosion in home buying like the pre ‘Great Recession’ binge of the early 2000’s. 


On the supply side of the equation, both Presidents Trump and Biden have fueled rising input costs of production with their economically absurd foreign trade policies.  Neither of these gentlemen have subscribed to the centuries-old belief that free trade leads to economic growth, prosperity, and lower inflation because of a steady flow of products and competition. 


Instead, we have seen an increase in tariffs on most of our trading partners which forces them to raise prices while allowing American companies, who now have less competition, to follow suit with their own increase in prices. 


Moreover, economists keep pointing out the  dramatic expansion in government spending has led to historic reductions in the labor force.  In many cases, throughout 2021, government benefits paid far more than work so people simply pulled out of the labor market.  This further decreased the supply of goods and services and has contributed to our current state. 


It cannot be overstated that the pandemic has led to supply chain issues that neither Trump nor Biden could have foreseen or fixed quickly.  Yet, there are some things that President Biden could do now to help 2022 look more like the previous 40 years. 


First, he must avoid pushing for an even greater expansion of government spending that creates disincentives for people to work.   Second, he needs to reverse Trumps’s anti-immigration stance and make it far easier for people to enter the country join the labor force. 


Third, his current regulatory agenda that has drastically increased the rules, paperwork, and expense of owning a business must be reined in.   Every new regulation is a cost.  Every cost gets paid for when we go shopping. 


Fourth, unlike his predecessor, Mr. Biden needs to openly work with the Federal Reserve (see Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker) to raise interest rates now – and by a large enough amount to slow the irrational growth of demand we are seeing. 


Whether Mr. Biden has the political courage to do this is uncertain. 

What is certain is that if he does not, this decade is going to look a lot like the 1970’s - and no one should want that. 2 Orlando Sentinel


Tuesday, April 20, 2021

The Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth

On May 2, 2018 I was standing in the third base coaching box in the bottom of the 7th inning of the Legacy Charter High vs. Masters Academy playoff game.

We were losing 8-0 and were a couple of outs away from a likely season-ending loss.

My oldest son, and Legacy's captain, Gehrig Chambless was in the batters box getting ready to come to the plate for the last time in his high school career and the last time he and I would be on the field together as father and son.

I had been his coach for virtually every season since 2006 from the TFA Royals, through Winter Garden Little League and Legacy High School.

I remember how excited Gehrig was to get his first uniform - #14  - when he was 7 years old.  He loved being on a team and having official games.  his first game ever he stood out in right field and practiced his swing.

Before he took his last swing in 2018 I noticed that he was wiping his eyes and had his head down.

Slowly, he turned and began walking all the way out to where I was standing.

When he got to me it was clear he was shedding tears.   He looked at me and said, "Thanks for coaching me all these years...." and then he gave his dad and coach an unforgettable hug.

On April 19, 2020 I retired from coaching baseball.  That night Gehrig and I, along with his mom and brother, watched 'Field of Dreams' for probably the 15th time.   

It was the last movie Gehrig and ever watched together and one that is especially meaningful to me now.

Every time the ending of this movie plays out, I weep like I am seeing it for the first time.   When Kevin Costner says, "Dad....you wanna have a  catch?"   I always - like any other American son - pictured that being me and my dad.

The last time Gehrig and I played catch as father and son was in 2019.  Strangely, we got to be all by ourselves on his high school field and we played catch for a longer period of time than we ever had.  I did not want that evening to end.  I knew that would most likely be our last time together on a baseball field.  As we walked off together I hope he felt how special that time was to me.  I hope it was to him.  

Gehrig died on April 26, 2020.   Bizarrely, I new see myself in the Kevin Costner role but instead of seeing my dad slowly turn and realizing it is him it is actually, in my mind, my son.  I can picture in my mind the image of him in his catcher's gear, youthful, strong and free of the troubles that come as we get older.

Lou Gehrig once said - even as he was facing his own early death - that he felt like "the luckiest man on the face of the Earth."

I feel like I was the luckiest dad and coach on the face of the earth to have Gehrig Chambless as my son and player.

And wish I could see him on Earth one more time, in his catcher's gear and say to him, "Gehrig, would you like to play catch?"  

I think he would love to.....