Wednesday, October 24, 2012

An Obama Win = Recession in 2013

Today's headline in The Wall Street Journal reads, "Weak Earnings Spark Selloff". 

Of particularly dire news is the report that the fourth quarter of 2012 is projected to have even weaker earnings for major corporations around the world and greater layoffs - on top of the planned layoffs mentioned in the WSJ today.

It is time for people to wake up and realize that President Obama is in over his head and has been since he had the thought of running for president.

Don't get me wrong.  I know he is a smart guy.  I believe he thinks he is doing what he needs to do to live up to his 2012 slogan, FORWARD. 

The problem is that forward in this case means moving into another four years of economic malaise, with even deeper problems than we have been battling since 2009 when the last recession "officially" ended.

In 2013 we will see one of the largest tax increases in our history - if Mr. Obama is re-elected.

In 2013 we will see Obamacare cemented as policy with massive new taxes, fines and regulations imposed on businesses and individuals - if he is re-elected.

In 2013 we will see certainty replace uncertainty and a large spike in layoffs.  Businesses are now sitting on whatever cash they have waiting to see if a former businessman or former community organizer/professor will take the oath of office in January 2013.  If it is the current president, businesses who currently have some hope that the much-reported 'fiscal cliff' will be avoided, will know that there is no stopping the Keynesian, anti-capitalism philosophy that has dominated the White House since 2009.  Once the fog of uncertainty is lifted and businesses clearly see that they cannot be saved by quantitative easing, cannot be saved by European debt management, cannot be saved by a slowing Chinese economy, cannot be saved by wind farms, electric cars, tax hikes on 1,200 rich families, 55% estate taxes, 30% Buffet Rule capital gains taxes, higher taxes on dividends, forced health care purchases and more.....they will then make rational choices about what to do next.

That choice will be to avoid as much risk as possible.  That means not spending money to expand, not spending money to hire and not spending money to keep the workers that are currently on the bubble.

If you are an undecided voter you better pay close attention to the facts.  President Obama cannot repeal the laws of supply and demand.  He cannot spend his way, tax his way, regulate his way and preach his way to a brighter future for America.

We have 13 more days to decide if we are going to keep moving towards France and Greece or begin the process of turning our economic Titanic around.


  1. I see Obama getting his way with tax increases only on the upper incomes if he is elected. His victory will depend on turnout which means he should have a democrat majority in both houses that will support his plan. Even if congress remains split the republicans will cave because they know they will be blamed for taxes on the middle class and they will lose heavy in 2014 for that.
    As for the economy, I can't explain why, but I believe our deficits are the root cause of the bad economy. It is like when you take expensive vacations or buy too much junk on credit. It makes you go cheap on other things and you lose sight of prosperity in favor of the moment. I know there is the inflation risk and opportunity cost of the interest we pay, but it seems it is more karma than numbers that is driving the economy down.

  2. As Churchill once said, "for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man
    standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."