Dear Millennials, It is time to stop crying over Trump

The following is my November 11, 2016 Op-Ed in the Orlando Sentinel

It was with a mixture of amusement and nausea that I observed young Americans throwing a post-election fit in the wake of Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the 2016 election.  It was even more bewildering when I read about college professors all over America postponing exams and cancelling classes to help alleviate the stress and trauma their students were going through.

Give me a break.

I should begin by saying that I voted for the Libertarian – and geographically-challenged –candidate, Gary Johnson.   I also feel compelled, lest Sentinel readers judge me too harshly, that I spent large portions of this fall semester explaining to my students why Donald Trump’s policies on trade, immigration and entitlements made no economic sense whatsoever. 

That said, I want to offer some words to the millions of Millennial voters (and non-voters) who are now crying, stamping their feet and smashing their participation trophies in fits of rage over this outcome.

First, get over yourself.  In case you learned nothing in your public K-12 schools, there is a system in place that Hillary participated in and lost fair and square.  Spare me the complaints about the Electoral College.  Most of you do not even know what it is.  Those of you who do would have been totally fine if Mr. Trump won the popular vote and lost the election.  

Protesting the outcome of a legitimate election  - one where your age group failed to turn out in the same numbers that helped Mr. Obama get elected – is totally fruitless.  Walking out of class, chanting simple slogans about our offensive new president and screaming for a different outcome is like the proverbial locking the barn door after your organic cows have run away.   You lost.  Deal with it and regroup for 2020.

To your professors and teachers who cancelled tests and classes – what bunch of enabling, pathetic examples of adulthood you are.

I would be willing to bet that the day after Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of Germany, students in Germany had to take exams.    The day after Pearl Harbor and September 11^th people had to get up and go to work.  In the future, your precious students you are trying to protect will have to function the day after other upsetting or horrific events have taken place.  Letting them go home or cancelling their obligations simply trains them to fall apart and abdicate their roles as students and future workers, spouses or leaders of this nation.

Now to some good advice for the nearly 80 million Americans who are part of the 18-35 year-old demographic.    It is time for you to revolt.    I do not mean burning tires or smashing the windows of the coffee shops you hang out in.  I mean revolution in your thinking and actions about Washington, D.C.

In 2008 young people rose up in staggering numbers to support the Libertarian-leaning Ron Paul.  Eight years later you jumped on the Socialist bandwagon of Bernie Sanders. 

My recommendation is that you combine these two movements into a new Millennial Party that represents intelligent change to American politics and policies.

You have shown us older folks that you are very individualistic when it comes to social issues.  You do not want 50-something year old people like me and others to tell you whom to marry, what to put in your body or what faith (or lack thereof) you should have.  Good for you.  It is none of my business – or anyone’s business what you do to yourself or with another consenting adult.  Keep telling us to mind our business and get out of your lives.

You also shown (at least in 2008) that you are aware of the fact that our economic system of crony capitalism, entitlements and debt will ruin your futures.    Many of you have shown that you are capable of running businesses that practice compassionate capitalism, sustainability, a deference to small and local suppliers, etc. in an attempt to be more socially responsible.  This is beautiful.  Keep it up – because the lobbyists and giant corporations out there are going to keep trying to rig the economy to suppress competition and plunder us for subsidies, bailouts and other anti-free market goals.

You need to organize your economic thoughts around the notion that the same government you do not want in your bedroom should not be in your wallet.   If you fight for your right to your property and your money with the same zeal you fight for gay-marriage and recreational marijuana you will be able to get people elected who will leave you alone.   This will mean social and economic prosperity – and an end to the duopoly of Republican and Democratic tyranny.

So, stop crying and get to work.

 

What my student's are (not) thinking Hillary Clinton's ideas

This week in my classes I handed out a sheet of paper to all 105 of my fall students as they walked into class on day one.   They were asked to indicate whom they would vote for in the 2016 presidential election.  They were given five choices - Hillary, Donald, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and a write in candidate.  Then, they were asked to identify one specific policy proposal from the candidate of their choice and fully explain why they believed this policy would benefit the United States.

 

First, the result of the poll:

 

Hillary Clinton - 52 votes (49.5%)

Donald Trump - 19 votes (18%)

Gary Johnson - 19 votes (18%)

Jill Stein - 1 vote

 

I was a bit surprised by the number of students who even knew about the Libertarian candidate - and hopefully followers of this blog will find some hope in this result - but what I was really interested in was why they supported the person they picked.

 

Of course, for Donald Trump, all 19 students mentioned kicking illegal immigrants out, or building a wall near Mexico.

 

It was the Hillary crowd that gave these answers.  As always, everything within quotation marks is a real student response, unedited for grammar or spelling. 

 

Here, America, is what young people like about Hillary Clinton...

 

" I believe in gender and race equality so, I believe that Hillary Clinton has been enforcing them."

 

"Taxing the upper class more, because they can afford it and the wealthy can get around taxes."

 

"I don't know any of the policies that Hillary Clinton has proposed, but I do know that she is a Democrat and for me that is a big enough reason to vote for her, if I could."

 

"The reason why I choose her is more about sympathy.  I can't vote here, so I don't pay much attention on either ones."

 

"She is married to Bill Clinton, so if she needs any help, he can help her."

 

"Globalizazion"

 

"A fair tax system would benefit the United States because it would mean equality among the classes. The wealthy, middle class and the poor would pay according to what they are able to. There would be no disagreements among the people."

 

"One policy I agree with is attempting to equals all social classes"

 

"health care policy if you cannot afford it, it provides you with health care, there are a lot of places where people could not afford to be taken care of. Yes this is not so good for the other people that could pay for it, not fair, because they end up paying for it, but that's just how it is."

 

"To be perfectly honest, I'd vote for Gary Johnson, but since that would be a wasted vote since not many people would even pay attention to him, I'd vote for Hillary Clinton instead."

 

"Exit taxes for national companies that have factories out of the U.S. Since there are so many American companies that move to China, for example, or other countries that have cheaper labor, the exit taxes would be a way to charge these companies."

 

"The one policy I mostly agree with that Hillary Clinton proposed is probably - if I'm not wrong - fixing the educational system and make tuitons more affordable and decrease the college debt that many students face right after graduating. It was a not so bad idea making the in state tuiton free for the state residents."

 

"Besides a free energy movement promoting solar, wind and other renewables energy sources, a general assumption that Bill would have direct contact to the source, could improve all policy's set but "free" energy could relieve dependence on foreign energy.

 

_____________

 

I have a lot of work to do....

 

Hillary Clinton's "Free" Tuition plan = Horrible economic policy

 

 

The following is my August 15, 2016 column in The Dallas Morning News

________________

 

 

This month I turned in grades for my summer classes. The moment that task was completed I had officially wrapped up 25 years in America's system of higher education.

 

During that quarter-century, I have observed countless proposals from Washington, D.C., to the hallways of my institution to make college education more "accessible" for millions of struggling American families. The latest idea —straight out of the Bernie Sanders-created Democratic platform — has Hillary Clinton proposing "free" college tuition for a large swath of America's middle- and lower-income families.

 

This idea is loaded with several unintended consequences that will make the recipients of this federal gift regret the moment it passed.

 

1. Her plan would create an artificial increase in the demand for college classes at community colleges and public universities. Community colleges, which are open-enrollment institutions, would be inundated with students seeking seats. This would lead to massive shortages, unless states approve huge budget (and tax) increases to fully fund the expansion of buildings and hiring of new faculty that would have to take place.

 

Universities, facing a similar demand push, would simply raise the price of admission, meaning higher grade-point averages, SAT and ACT scores would be used to weed out students who have responded to the allure of free tuition. This greater selectivity would put even more pressure on public universities, which already are facing challenges in having a racially and culturally diverse student population.

 

2. Potentially millions of young people who have no business attending college would waste their time -- and taxpayer dollars -- seeking degrees they will not obtain. It is a simple fact that not everyone is capable of surviving the demands of multitudinous college majors. Free tuition would dupe young people into a sense of belonging, only to find that their work ethic, intelligence and aptitude are not up to the rigors of advanced education.

 

This brings us to another economic fact: Ill-prepared students who rush off to college could have allocated their time and resources to second-best choices such as internships, vocational training or other certification programs to become skilled workers in fields that are already in critically short supply -- and often pay more than college graduates earn. Clinton's plan only exacerbates those shortages in blue-collar trades by decreasing the available supply of candidates for those programs.

 

3. Her program also would lead to downward compression on salaries for students who do obtain college degrees. Simply put, if you have an artificial increase in college and university enrollment, you will have an artificial increase in the number of people who eventually receive degrees. Ask yourself what will happen if, say, the supply of humanities or English majors increases? Of course, salaries will have to fall as surpluses emerge in those professions.

 

Furthermore, possessing a college degree would now be less illustrious in the eyes of many employers (as it already is), and the four-year degree would be less valuable. This would force more students to turn to graduate school -- and more debt since Clinton is not giving that away for free (yet).

 

4. Then there is the problem facing college educators who would now teach millions of educational welfare recipients. We already see a growing trend toward millennial entitlement thinking. If President Clinton gives these folks free tuition, many of them are going to treat college like they do public high school. Does anyone really want America's colleges and universities to be regarded the same way we regard our high schools?

 

Free K-12 education is of the same quality as many other free goods -- poor, at best. Paying for college makes people value their education more.

 

5. Finally, there is the small matter of the United States Constitution. In 1794, James Madison said, "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress, of extending on objects of benevolence the money of their constituents."

 

Since Clinton would have to swear to defend the Constitution, I would like to send her my pocket copy, which provides no measure for taking away taxpayer dollars to pay for the education of college kids. Simply put, our Founders recognized that in order to make tuition free for one person, an act of plunder had to be committed on a taxpayer.

 

Which leaves me with my recommendation to parents of college-age kids:

 

Pay for your own creation.

A July 4th Challenge and cartoon for your kids...

Today in my classes I reminded my students that they have an exam on July 5th.  Mindful of the fact that many of them would rather not have to study supply and demand analysis on July 4th, I made an attempt to make them feel better. I explained how July 4th should be a day of mourning rather than celebration.  Mourning for what America could be - and should be - if we would only follow the principles of individual liberty and limited government spelled out in the words of our Declaration of Independence.

 

I went on to explain that if you look at the trend in property rights, civil liberties, taxes, the social welfare state and government regulations (all issues we have covered in class), America is far from what our Founders meant for it to be and that in reality, we are closer than ever to becoming a land of socialism where fewer and fewer people have anything more than contempt for our founding principles.

 

To prove the point that July 4th should be called "National Hypocrite's Day" I offered the following challenge:

 

"As your family and friends prepare to enjoy fireworks on July 4th, stop and ask them if they would mind if you read the Declaration of Independence to them and have a family discussion of that Thomas Jefferson was saying and how his words apply to us today."

 

I told my students that there is a good chance that their request will be met with protest and if allowed to read it they would look out and see glazed, indifferent expressions, followed by silence as if to say, "Can we just pop the firecrackers now??"

 

For those of you who do not think a reading of the Declaration of Independence would go over well in your household, let me offer this 15 minute cartoon/ Bernie Sanders monologue instead.  Surely you have 15 minutes to share this with your kids. 

 

Enjoy the fireworks.

 

 

Why Libertarianism should be GOP's future

What follows is my May 10, 2016 Op-Ed in The Orlando Sentinel  

 

Now that the Republican Party has officially committed suicide by selecting Donald Trump as the new standard bearer of the GOP, it is time for all good Libertarians to come to the aid of our neighbor.

Make no mistake about it: If you are a traditional Goldwater/Reagan conservative, your party is now the one that is associated with xenophobia, racism, religious and ethnic bigotry and blatant sexism. On top of those unflattering but true categorizations, you also belong to a party that is now as economically ignorant as that of left-wing democratic socialism.

Yet, it is because of this reality that you, Republicans, are now in a prime position to make a historic comeback in 2020 and beyond. If you want proof, go back to the future and watch a 44-second YouTube clip from 1975.

Forty-one years ago, Mike Wallace of "60 Minutes" interviewed Republican presidential hopeful Ronald Reagan. In this segment, Reagan told Wallace that the heart of his philosophy was Libertarianism.

 

Reagan went on to explain that Libertarianism is essentially a belief that human beings are better positioned to make their own decisions without the control or regulation of government.
This means that, on social issues, Libertarians do not believe the state should have any say in who consenting adults marry; should not regulate what adults put into their bodies; and should not interfere with our rights to privacy, speech and other civil matters.

Democrats understand this all too well, and are to be congratulated for pushing for laws that do not restrict the right to marry whom we choose while getting laws passed that decriminalize marijuana use. Moreover, it has been the Democrats who have been most outspoken in fighting the government's surveillance practices against innocent Americans. Meanwhile, Republicans, in their best ostrich-head-in-the-sand impersonation, continue to push for laws that impose their "family values" on all the rest of us.

On economic issues, Libertarians want government out of our wallets as much as we want them out of our bodies and bedrooms.

This is where Republicans traditionally received high marks. After all, it was Reagan who drove the top marginal income tax rate from 70 percent to 28 percent in only five years. It was Reagan who championed welfare reform and fewer job-destroying regulations that helped to fuel the rapid growth of the 1980s. And spare me (in case you are a Democrat reading this) the line that "Reagan caused massive deficits." Government tax collections rose from $599 billion in 1981 to $990 billion by 1989 because of his tax cuts and growth-creating policies.

Reagan also championed amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants and never once announced a policy of not allowing any Soviet or Eastern-bloc residents to enter American until "we can figure this thing out."

Today's Republican Party also fails — miserably — the test of economic literacy.
Donald Trump wants to return the United States to the trade policies of the 1930s while pushing for greater social-welfare spending and immigration laws that would create labor shortages and inflationary pressures in innumerable areas of our economy.

But Trump's bad economics simply follow the policies of both Bush presidencies in which increased regulations, higher income taxes (the first Bush), horrible trade policies (second Bush) and rampant crony capitalism did not give voters much reason to believe that Republicans were good for their economic livelihood.

Those of us who are Libertarians offer today's disaffected Republicans a saner option going forward.
We would say to those who cannot stomach voting for Trump — or Hillary Clinton — that the time has come to realize that, on social issues, the country largely wants no part of 1950s Republican values. Millennials — who now outnumber baby boomers — do not want to hear about morality and certainly do not want the government to define it.

On the economic side of the coin, younger voters are torn between the Libertarian ideology of Ron Paul and the Socialist dogma of Bernie Sanders. In each of the past two election cycles, young people flocked to these candidates.

Now is the time for a smart Republican (no laughing, please) to embrace the Democratic Party on social issues and the traditional Reagan Libertarianism on economic issues in order to turn 2016 into a bad memory.

Or, Republicans can just keep losing elections.

Why I will miss Barack Obama

What follows is my April Op-Ed in the Orlando Sentinel

 

As the United States grinds ever closer to the Hillary versus Donald festival this fall, I have been reflecting on the presidency of Mr. Obama in preparation for lectures I will give my students. As I pour over the economic-policy proposals of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump, it has dawned on me that 2017 may very well mark the first year — of many years in a row — that we will wish Barack Obama were still in office.

 

Let's look at it.

First, there is the issue of income taxes. Yes, Obama did in fact increase income-tax rates with the highest marginal tax bracket reaching 39.6 percent. Hillary Clinton wants it to hit 43.6 percent. Obama also championed the push for higher taxes on capital gains — arguing for a top rate of 28 percent. Clinton wants rates as high as 47.4 percent (Bill Clinton lowered it to 20 percent) depending on whether or not we keep our investments for the number of years she believes is best. Of course, compared to Bernie Sanders' plan for a top income-tax rate of 54 percent and his stated belief that even 90 percent might be reasonable, Hillary's "soak-the-rich" model looks downright magnanimous.

While Trump has called for much lower tax rates — and fewer brackets — his horrible understanding of the economics of international trade and immigration makes his economic vision for America worse than anything Obama has created over the past seven years.

Trump calls for China to pay a new 45 percent tariff on exports to the United States. Where did he get this number? He certainly has not told us, and I am not sure even he knows. But what economists do know is that Obama has been advocating broader free-trade measures with Pacific Rim nations in an effort to create more jobs for American companies that produce goods that other nations do not have a comparative advantage in.

 

Despite all of his economically illiterate rhetoric, Trump cannot show that liberalized trade has been bad for the United States. While Bill Clinton was in office, international trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world skyrocketed — and the unemployment rate fell to less than 4 percent while incomes increased and the American economy experienced record growth.

 

Don't tell that to Mr. Clinton's wife, though. She is on record criticizing her husband's pro-trade policies (without mentioning him by name) and even though she initially supported the new Trans-Pacific Partnership, she is now feeling the "I hate free trade" heat from Bernie Sanders and has backed away from supporting this treaty.

 

That leaves no one from either party arguing for the very economic practices that have created trillions in global wealth. Rather, all three of the remaining major candidates are pushing us back to the disastrous 1930s when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act destroyed international trade and accelerated the march to World War II.

 

Meanwhile, Trump is proposing to deport 11 million workers/consumers/taxpayers all in the name of creating the illusion that unemployed Americans will now be able to work in agricultural fields and in meat-packing plants.

 

His deportation plan in so economically disastrous in its potential that economists stand in rare unison to decry it. The impact on consumer prices, the gross domestic product, border town economies, agriculture, construction and countless other areas of our economy would be enormous — and negative.

 

I suppose that is OK because on the other side, we have Hillary and Bernie blaming everything from global warming to childhood obesity on Wall Street. Each of the Democratic candidates has a long list of promised "crackdowns" and regulations on the "evil" men and women who provide capital to our nation's economic infrastructure. The last time I checked, Wall Street has helped bring greater opportunities to new businesses than the federal government ever has.

 

No matter. It is time that the folks who have "rigged" the economy pay dearly — while we sit back and watch capital become more expensive and less available.

 

I would be the first among many economists who would give Barack Obama a very low grade for his economic policies. The list of bad decisions is long — and our meager economic recovery punctuates this point.

 

Yet, as I and other economists look into our crystal balls at what a Trump or Clinton or Sanders presidency would mean, we see even worse years ahead.

 

Enjoy your retirement, Mr. Obama — you don't look so bad after all.

Teaching Economics to Bernie Sanders Supporters

What follows is my February 27, 2016 Op-Ed in The Chicago Tribune.  Enjoy!

1987 I walked into a college classroom as an educator for the first time.  Ronald Reagan was in the last two years of his second term and the American economy was churning at full steam.  Since the fall of 1982 the American economy had grown by near-record amounts for a nation at peace.  The nation was on the way towards creating 20 million jobs with falling inflation and unemployment rates.

During those years teaching college students the principles of capitalism was easy.   They were living through evidence that when allowed to pursue one’s self-interest – and keep the fruits of their labor – an economy could lift the standard of living up and down the income scale.    It is important to note that in 1981 when most of my students were in middle or high school the top marginal income tax rate was 70%.  Reagan had reduced that figure through two tax cuts that dropped the top income tax bracket to only 28%.  My students knew that when they graduated they would be free to pursue their careers and start businesses without being shaken down by the IRS.

Today my students do not have the same reason to be optimistic.  They have seen their parents suffer the vestiges of the ‘Great Recession’.  They have grown up during a time when crony capitalism has invaded the halls of Congress while rising tax rates and historic increases in federal regulations have sapped the energy our nation’s economy needs to create real economic growth.  By every measure, the 2009-2016 economic recovery is the weakest since World War II.  Even our falling unemployment rate masks the reality that nearly 90 million Americans have withdrawn from the labor force, while others work only part-time or in jobs that do not match their skills, training or education.

In the wake of this new reality facing America’s young people it would seem to make the most sense that they would be looking for another Reagan.   For my students who identify as Democrats I have walked them through John F. Kennedy’s massive tax cut in 1963 and Bill Clinton’s final six years when taxes on investments, savings and home sales fell and sane fiscal management of the budget prevailed.

Yet, my students – like millions of other young voters – seem to believe that Bernie Sanders can save their futures.   Sanders, with his plan to provide Medicare for all; free university tuition; increased social security and family leave benefits, is an economically seductive candidate for people who are afraid that they have no economic future and therefore need economic security from that future.

However, as an economics professor, my job in an election year is to compare and contrast the major candidates economic plans and point out deficiencies in each. 

This is where the Bernie Sanders wake-up call has occurred. 

When my students see his tax plan that increases income tax rates on low, middle and upper-income workers – with rates rising to more than 54% for top earners – they learn that In America’s 102 year history of rising and falling income tax rates, in decades when marginal rates fell (see the 1920s, 1960s and 1980s, for example), the economy boomed and the government actually received greater tax revenue.    In time periods when the government adopted a “soak the rich” mindset (1930s, 1970s and in recent times) the economy performed poorly and revenues never rose by as much as was predicted.

Moreover, they have learned that the Sander’s spending plans – which the Wall Street Journal has estimated would total $18 trillion – would further increase the national debt, and would saddle their generation with massive tax and interest rate obligations and make their college degree worth less -  all in the name of expanding the social welfare network. 

In short, young people today are pinning their hopes on a fairy tale.  That fairy tale informs them that they can get free things from the government and no longer live with so much worry.

When they see that nothing is free and that they will have to pay for Bernie Sanders imitation of Santa Claus, that is when the real worrying begins.