250 Years...We have had a nice run despite the warning signs

Even though I am largely retired from blogging and writing Op-Eds for newspapers, I figured I should dust myself off on our nation's 250th birthday to offer my two cents on where we have come and where we are going.

First, it is clear that the Founding Fathers created the greatest experiment in world history.  No other country has accomplished as much as the United States in such a short period of time.  And, without question, no place has given the world as great a gift and example as we have.  Our Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and philosophical foundation of life, liberty, and private property, combined with what we did for the planet during World War II and the Cold War, are, without question, a gift every human over the last 250  years should be grateful for.

Then, of course, is our largely capitalist model, based on innovation and on Adam Smith's belief that gaining wealth by serving your fellow man is a noble cause.  We have given the world an endless array of things that it needs - and just as much stuff that it does not need, but wants - while showing other nations that you do not have to be poor and stuck in the past.  Along the way, we and we alone, have been the nation that has signaled other people around the world that if they are sick of high taxes, lack of property rights, rules, regulations, and corrupt governments, they can just come over here and start all over with no promises, but genuine opportunity.

It is also a fact that in many ways our nation enjoys more freedom than it did on July 4, 1776.

The horrific institution of slavery ended.   Women who had been denied their rights as citizens eventually gained all of them.  American Indians no longer face annihilation.  People who are not heterosexual enjoy the same constitutional and human rights as everyone else.  Our mistreatment of Japanese-Americans during World War II has never been replicated since.  We no longer hunt down suspected Communists, as evidenced by all of the near-Communists running for office these days.   The list is endless...

Yes, our nation had zero income taxes in 1776, and now we are shaken down by the government every April 15th.   Eminent domain abuse, rampant regulations, endless lawsuits, crony capitalism, the creation of the welfare state, and our astronomical national debt would all cause the Founders to shake their heads in collective disbelief.

So would the quality of our current politicians.  From the right, we have the rise of Nationalism, state capitalism, and the economically idiotic stance that somehow free trade and immigration are bad for our nation.  In our Constitution, the Founders sought to make trade "normal" and had no provision for tariffs other than as a source of revenue.  They were never meant to be protective or arbitrarily punitive.  Our Founders also understood the importance of the free movement of human beings to make our nation truly rich and great.   This belief has died, too, in the Republican Party.

The Democrats are no better.  Rather than use July 4, 2026, as a moment to say, "Hey, let's find another John F. Kennedy or hell, even Bill Clinton", instead, the modern Democratic Party has embraced Karl Marx.  

Both parties are now on a course that has our nation's future - and July 4, 2076 - in jeopardy of looking very different from what it does today.

But, relative to the rest of the world and compared to every other nation that has ever existed, those of us who have lived here all, or most of our lives, have a lot to be thankful for.

Ben Franklin was once asked, "So, Mr. Franklin, what kind of government did you create for us?"

His answer?

"A Republic...if we can keep it."

Precisely.

Free Jerome Powell

President Trump is calling for the firing of Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell.

Of course.

Mr. Powell had the nerve to suggest yesterday that the Federal Reserve Bank was in a difficult position with respect to interest rates this year.

That difficult position is because of Donald Trump's misguided policies on tariffs.  

Mr. Trump does not seem to understand that tariffs cause the input costs of production to increase for businesses in the United States and rising input costs causes our nations' aggregate supply curve to decrease.  When aggregate supply decreases, it causes BOTH higher rates of unemployment and a decrease in the GDP.  This is called stagflation and it is the worst thing that can happen to an economy.

Anyone over the age of 55 can recall the stagflationary period of the 1970's when declining labor productivity, heavy government regulations and rising oil prices caused the worst economic performance since the 1930's.

In the late 1970's and early 1980's, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker waged a war against the inflation part of stagflation by increasing interest rates so high (the prime rate eventually hit a staggering 21.5%) that aggregate demand fell sharply and with it, the rate of inflation.

Of course this meant Ronald Reagan had to deal with a massive recession in 1981 and most of 1982 but by November of 1982 inflation was a memory.   President Reagan helped keep inflation low the rest of the 1980's by cutting regulations and taxes.  This meant lower input costs, an increase in aggregate supply and the wonderful years of non-inflationary economic growth.

Now President Trump wants the opposite of what Paul Volcker did.

While the economy is on the brink of stagflation once again, he wants the Fed to actually CAUSE MORE INFLATION by lowering interest rates.   

If Mr. Powell does what Trump wants, it will lead to an increase in overall demand and rising prices.  I suppose Mr. Trump wants this because his trade war has caused consumer and business confidence to collapse, which forced aggregate demand down.  When aggregate demand AND aggregate supply decreases you get the worst of both worlds.  At least when we "only" have a recession things like gas and travel gets cheaper.  Under Trump's bizarro world economic policies we will likely get the recession but higher costs of living at the same time.

All Mr. Powell is doing is acting like an adult with an actual understanding of economics.

As a Libertarian/Austrian economist I am not a fan of the Federal Reserve Bank, but as long as we have one it needs to remain free of the bullying of Presidents who ruin economies while doing what it is supposed to do when inflation shows up.  

Trump's Trade War is a long-run win for China

 Lost in the delirious celebration by Trump supporters that the U.S. is on its way to being great again, is the fact that China is poised to be the 21st century's biggest winner once this irrational trade conflict subsides.

The way in which this will happen is straightforward for anyone who has ever made a passing grade in an economics class.

Let's look at it...

First, Canada and Mexico now hate us.  The same goes for the European Union, central and South America, Asia, Africa and those remote islands off the coast of Australia that got hit with tariffs even though their only occupants are penguins.

We have now slapped punitive tariffs on all of those regions while threatening to take Greenland and force Canada to become the 51st state.

So let's ponder for a moment what the best strategy for China is in all of this mess.   

Yep, it is to visit every country on Earth that thinks we are imbeciles and bullies, and offer those nations trade deals that come with no, or low, tariffs.   

China already has invested billions in infrastructure all over South America and Africa in exchange for favorable trade terms.   Now it can make similar deals in the EU, Canada, Mexico and other places where it has a smaller footprint.  Recently, China eliminated tariffs on the 43 least developed nations on Earth, including 33 in Africa.  This was not down out of love, but rather a superior understanding of Adam Smith.

With a GDP of around $20 trillion, China is the second largest economy in the world.  That puts them in prime position to catch the U.S. as our population ages, our economy weakens, and our standing in the global community collapses.

Our national debt is now 120% of our GDP, which brings us much closer to the final currency debasing days of the Roman Empire.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out recently, we have a male labor force participation rate that is lower than ever.  Young men who Trump thinks would flock to newly built factories are instead living with their parents, playing video games, living off of social welfare payments and have no interest in the type of work men typically did decades ago.

Women in this country are high-earning college graduates with dim marriage prospects and no plans to have children.  This makes for an aging population that would be missing vital workers in Trump's delusional plans to take us back to 1956.

This is compounded by the fact that the only people you can find to actually work in back-breaking jobs - immigrants - are now being kicked out of a country filled with people who are too stupid to realize that their housing, food and health care bills are about to explode under the duel weight of deportations and dumb tariff policies.

China, with a far more educated, industrious and determined population, will very likely ride the next four years out while cozying up to the rest of the world seeking one adult in the room of international economics.

This may very well mean that as the U.S. continues to economically deteriorate, a new financial super power will emerge to take our place.   One can only imagine the scene, years down the road, of some other American president traveling, hat in hand, around the globe looking for trading partners, new workers and financial support only to have the planet tell him, or her, "Sorry, your arrogant nation blew it and you are now on your own."

Trade deficits do not matter

 Since the 1980's Donald Trump has tried to tell everyone that America is being ripped off by every nation we have a trade deficit with.  It is the foundation of his approach to tariff policy, international trade and economics.

And it is totally wrong.

Let's start with an example than any first grade public school student - or current member of Trump's administration - should be able to comprehend.

Suppose the United States buys $5 billion worth of bananas each year from Honduras.  Honduras, on the other hand, buys $1 billion worth of American apples.  In this example, we have a trade deficit with Honduras of $4 billion so they are ripping us off and we are stupid suckers.

So, we retaliate with a tariff that drives their exports of bananas down to $1 billion.  Now Honduras and the U.S. will be equal - $1 billion for $1 billion, right?

Wrong.  Honduras, a very poor nation that has far less purchasing power than the U.S. will now be poorer so their demand for American apples will fall.   Let's say it falls to $500 million.  We are back to a deficit, back to being ripped off, so we slap even more tariffs on them, making them even poorer, while American apple producers suffer along the way.

Second example:  I use Google every day.  Google charges me nothing. I  benefit immensely from this search engine while I never click on any ads Google provides.  According to Trump I am now ripping Google off because I am gaining information and Google gets no money.  There is a "trade deficit" between me and Google.

It should also be pointed out, which it rarely is, that since the U.S. is the richest country in the world it stands to reason that we would buy a great deal more from other nations than they can buy from us.  This makes much of the trade deficit a naturally occurring event.

It is also important to point out that the U.S. actually runs a trade surplus   in the services market.  Things like banking and communication services run perpetual surpluses with other nations.  Does that mean we are ripping them off?

Donald Trump - and the millions of economically ignorant supporters who back him - see the world as a zero-sum game.  If Honduras sells more bananas than they buy apples, Honduras wins and we lose.

That is not how trade works and it is not how the benefits of trade should be measured.

Honduras has a comparative advantage in bananas, just like China has an advantage in rare-earth minerals.  The U.S. has an advantage in energy equipment, movies and energy.

Trade means that sometimes a nation will have more categories of comparative advantages than another nation.  That means that they will sell more, in total dollars, to their partner than they will buy.  This trade deficit is natural and simply means that the U.S. will have cheaper bananas and rare earth minerals even if Honduras and China run surpluses with us.

Trade deficits are only bad if a nation's exports are falling in areas where it has a comparative advantage. 

Where China, or Japan, or any other nation truly shuts out U.S. goods that are superior, the Trump administration has a case for using tariffs until our products are allowed in.

But in the case of steel, aluminum and many other goods we have no argument and are inferior producers.

To prevent deficits the best course of action is to compete head to head and allow productive differences to reveal who is best.  

To do otherwise is to simply reward ineffective U.S. companies while crushing the productive ones with higher costs.  Ronald Reagan knew this all too well.

How this Trade War could lead to World War III

Today, China announced new 84% tariffs on American goods and other measures to retaliate against Donald Trumps' 104% tariff against China. The 104% came after China imposed new 34% tariffs on America which came after Donald Trump increased tariffs on China by 34%. 

 And so it goes. 

 What is lost on Trump zealots who want to see the U.S. flex its economic muscle against China and other nations is that their patriotism masks an appalling lack of knowledge concerning history, economics and human nature. 

 Specifically, in 1930 the Hoover Administration responded to the early stages of the Great Depression by passing the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. This Act drastically increased tariffs on virtually all U.S. trading partners despite letters from thousands of economists who begged President Hoover to not take this action. Not surprisingly, our trading partners retaliated and the global economy, already reeling from the vestiages of World War I, plunged deeper into what became a global depression.

 Most economists argue that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act ranks at or near the top of the list of causes of World War II. It is pretty simple. Historically when the flow of goods stops between nations, the flow of bullets and bombs begins. This is a fact that is lost on supporters of Donald Trump and his economically irrational and idiotic war against trade deficits we have with other nations. China has made it clear that it will "fight until the end" and is ready for a trade war or "any war".

 China has never been more prepared, militarily or economically, for a protracted war - of any kind - against the United States. Economic reasoning would suggest that China will not wage a military war against America. After all, we are China's biggest customer and we own them trillions of dollars. Why would China destroy the U.S. in a nuclear war when it would mean similar devasatation for them? It makes no economic sense to kill your biggest customer and lose out on all of the money that you are owed. 

 Yet, as economists have increasingly observed, sometimes human beings are capable of engaging in irrational behavior where we know the costs of some action will be greater than the benefits but do it anyway. Just how far will China allow itself to be bullied, harassed and threatened? How long will China be willing to endure the prideful and arrogant threats of an administration that is determined to end the era of globalization that has created enormous wealth for the United States and the world while preserving world peace for the past 80 years?

 As history has clearly taught us - at least those of us willing to be taught - sometimes the slightest miscommunications and human error can have fatal consequences. It is part of human nature to believe we can guide the future and know what our actions will create. This is pure folly and this type of hubris is what we are seeing now. 

 As Americans go about their normal routines today, it is very likely that few are even considering how perilously fragile our civilization is. This is not 1945 where the U.S. was, by far, the biggest military and economic power. In 2025 the planet is very small and the ramifications of human arrogance and error are greater than ever.

 My advice to those Trump supporters who are cheering him on would be to sit down tonight and watch the 1983 movie, "The Day After". This movie helped President Reagan (the last great Republican) become even more determined to work WITH the Soviet Union to avoid World War III. Now more than ever we need the same humilty, character and intelligence from the President of the United States - so that there will still be a United States.

I am embarrassed to be a Libertarian today

I have been a registered Libetarian since the first George Bush was President.

I have been an acting Libertartian since I was a kid.

Today, I am ashamed to tell someone that I belong to this party.

I received an email this morning from a friend who told me about some horrific posts made by Libertarians in, of all places, New Hampshire.

I will not repeat the ugly, stupid and antithesis to liberty posts here but suffice it to say, some idiots in the "Live Free or Die" state have absolutely no clue what it means to be a genuine lover of liberty.

The foundational principle of Libertarian thought is that we all have a natural, or God-given right to our life, or liberty and our property.  This applies to every human being on the planet, including Democratic candidate for President, Kamala Harris.

Since 2016 I have watched as many so-called Libertarians have voted for Donald Trump - a person who has very few Libertarian positions and a lot of statist, nationalistic and anti-freedom ones.

I did not vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020.  I will not vote for him this year.

But I am now leaning towards staying home on election day rather than vote for the candidate from my party.

This country is in big trouble.   The Republicans look nothing like the party of Ronald Reagan.    The Democrats continue to embrace the failure of socialism, and now I have people in my party calling for ending the life of another human being.

This disgusting use of social media comes from a twisted view of what liberty means.

On behalf of genuine liberty lovers all over the United States I would like to apologize to Kamala Harris.

Kamala Harris Flunks basic Economics

This will not take long.... Kamala Harris is running on a platform that includes imposing nationwide price ceilings on groceries. 

Aside from the arrogance of believing she is an expert in what prices should look like, there are two incredibly stupid flaws with her plan. 

First, if the government forces food prices down in the name of "fairness" to consumers, it will cause food suppliers to reduce output. This is because if prices are below the direct and opportunity cost of supplying these goods, it would be irrational to continue to supply. 

Second, if prices are driven down artificially, consumers will try to buy more. The combination of reduced output and greater purchasing attempts will cause shortages. Just like in Venezuela. Just like when Nixon did this in the early 1970's. Just like in the former Soviet Union. 

Why propose something so economically idiotic then? 

When Richard Nixon came out with his plan to freeze food prices the voters were so happy that he was re-elected in a landslide. 

That is because the vast majority of voters are economically ignorant. So, if voters want low prices and they are ignorant about where prices come from, it makes perfect POLITICAL sense to propose price controls.

 And that is why she did it. 

Afterall, she can't actually believe price ceilings will work.....

Why Kamala Harris might be worse than Joe Biden

>What follows is from the July 22, 2024 Wall Street Journal As a senator, Harris supported Medicare for All, which would shift the healthcare system from private and employer-based insurance to a government-run program. 

But in 2020, during her run for the White House, she released a more moderate proposal to expand access to Medicare while keeping private insurance intact. And since joining Biden’s presidential ticket, Harris has backed his plan, which calls for building on the Affordable Care Act.On trade, Harris opposed two recent major trade deals that Biden supported, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. 

Harris was one of just 10 senators who voted against the USMCA, a renegotiated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement under the Trump administration, arguing the environmental provisions were insufficient. 

She also opposed TPP as a Senate candidate, arguing it didn’t do enough to protect the environment and worker regulations. Harris’s climate record has arguably been the most liberal part of her policy portfolio. She has backed the Green New Deal and supported banning fracking. Biden ran on a fracking ban, but only for oil and gas production from federal lands. 

As president, Biden did more to address climate change than any of his predecessors spending $1 trillion in tax credits, grants and loans for clean energy. As a presidential candidate, Harris proposed a full repeal of the 2017 tax cuts enacted by Trump and congressional Republicans.

 Biden as a candidate and as president has backed leaving in place the tax cuts for people making under $400,000 and fully paying for those extensions with new taxes on companies and high-income households. During her campaign, she also favored raising estate taxes. 

 While in the Senate, she proposed an expansive tax credit for lower-income and middle-income workers worth up to $3,000 for individuals and $6,000 for married couples. That idea, worth more than $2 trillion over a decade, would have tilted the tax code to be much more progressive. It didn’t make it into the Biden agenda, though it has some similarities to the child tax credit that was in place for 2021.

Did Racism create Capitalism?

Back in 2022 I invited Ibram X. Kendi, author of "How to be an Antiracist' to join me at Valencia to debate his contention that captialism was born out of racism. He did not make it, but here is a speech you might find useful to answer this imporant question.

How to stop Stagflation now

 

The latest inflation data was released on June 10^th and the news is getting worse.   Prices increased 8.6% in May – the largest increase since the country started Christmas shopping in 1981. Making matters worse is the fact that the economy contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022.

For those of you who are new to this type of party – meaning you are under the age of 50 – this is called stagflation, and it is the worst of all economic developments.

Stagflation first reared its ugly head in the United States in 1971 and stayed there for over a decade.

Nixon tried wage and price controls (see Elizabeth Warren’s current call for the same) only to create shortages and black markets.

Jimmy Carter tried to spend his way out of trouble, only to see the ‘Misery Index’ - the sum of inflation and unemployment – reach a record that has never been broken.

Now it is Joe Biden’s turn to either look like a savior or share the dunce cap worn by his predecessors.

If he is serious about fighting stagflation – without seeing a Federal Reserve Bank created recession, do it for him – he needs to do just one thing.   That is, he must immediately take measures to increase the overall supply of goods and services in this country.  To do that, he must ignore his party, overturn Trump’s bad ideas and have the courage to be unpopular until non-inflationary economic growth reappears.

First, President Biden has to inform the climate change zealots that now is not the time to worry about how much ice is in the Artic in the year 2417.    He should announce, immediately, that permits for oil drilling on federal lands that have gathered dust for the past two years will be approved while all federal regulations that are currently rushing us towards a fossil fuel-free society will be tabled.     Notice that as gas prices have crept towards $5 per gallon, the oil companies are not acting like they used to.   In the past, high gas prices would have led to a flurry of production increases everywhere crude can be found. 

Not now.   Biden and his climate change minions have scared the oil and gas industry into sitting on proven reserves and barely budging the production needle.  He needs to tell them – yesterday – to drill, drill, drill.   This will help increase supplies, lower prices and offset what has been lost from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Second, he needs to open the borders – and they need to be wide open.   There are currently over 2 million fewer immigrants in the U.S. than we would normally have because of Trump’s lousy understanding of the value immigration has in a modern economy. That, plus the slowdown that occurred during the height of the pandemic has created a terrible labor shortage that has fueled skyrocketing prices for homes, food and everything else.     We need more people and since Americans do not seem eager to go back to work, we need to get them from anywhere and everywhere.

Third, Mr. Biden needs to call off Donald Trump’s trade war with the planet and announce that there will be pressure on Congress to eliminate all tariffs on all goods that are produced in any country on the planet that wants to sell to us.   The elimination of tariffs would help offset a great deal of the supply-chain issues that have kept prices high and would create more competition, lower prices and economic growth.

Finally, while there is nothing Joe Biden can do to undo his inflationary $1.9 trillion stimulus package from 2021, there is a message he can send to Wall Street that would be helpful.   That is, that government spending – across the board – will be cut.  That means corporate welfare, social welfare and every other category in between in order to show some measure of inflation-fighting fiscal discipline.

If all this sounds like some ridiculous fairy tale that would never happen, well, that is true.

That is why many economists are now saying that this decade – yes, the decade – is going to look a lot like the 1970’s, minus the polyester and disco music.

Paul Bell - Legendary Oklahoma football coach - and father figure

 Today, Paul Bell, my high school football coach in Hugo, Oklahoma (1981-83) passed away.

Words cannot describe how much Coach Bell meant to me and the thousands of other young people he impacted during his time as an educator and coach.

In the 1970's he was the coach of Eufaula, OK high school where he shaped the careers of legends like J.C. Watts and the Selmon brothers.

The number of All-State and All-American players he coached is staggering.   He had players who ended up in the NFL Hall of Fame and who were considered candidates for President of the United States.

But he also had a far greater impact on the players he coached by being a true father figure.

Eastern and Southeastern Oklahoma is a hard part of the world to grow up in.   When I was a kid, the fathers of that era were not the type to hug a lot or say "I love you" with great, or any, frequency.

Paul Bell was different.

It was not uncommon for him to finish an important football, or life lesson, and look you right in the eye and say, "I love you."  

You knew pretty quickly that he meant it by the way he fought for us, taught us and molded us into men.

The molding could be tough as hell though.

Coach Bell grew up in Depression-era Oklahoma, worked in the oil fields, served in the military and was a champion boxer and undersized guard for his national championship college football team.  He was a hard-nosed, no-nonsense man that I seriously doubt many of today's NFL, college or highschool kids could have tolerated.

He was not shy about loudly correcting stupid things we did and did not tolerate laziness.  

From his two-a-day practices in Oklahoma's summer to his fourth quarter drills that made you wish you were 1,000 miles from his practice field, when he put us through conditioning drills you knew it was meant to last a lifetime.

And a lifetime it has lasted.

There have been many times when I have been in the proverbial 4th quarter of work, parenting, coaching or being a husband.   I cannot count the number of times that I have felt Coach Bell's influence when I needed to finish strong or outwork someone else.   His tough love shaped my character and helped me understand the difference between excellence and mediocrity.

Late in his life I would take my sons to his home and he treated them like they were his own.  He laughed with them, showed them football drills and asked them questions about their interests and their lives without ever bragging about himself.

He also never discussed something with me or any other player that is also a testament to his character. Coach Bell was let go by Hugo after three seasons.   Years later we found out that one of the the biggest reasons for his dismissal was his decision to have the first African-American quarterback in school history take the reins for our team.  This was a hugely unpopular decision with the people in Hugo who had power and influence over the school board even though it was the right one for our team.  That quarterback ended up taking Hugo to back-to-back state playoff appearances his junior and senior year.

This, and countless other stories about him are sure to circulate in the days ahead.

Paul Bell's legacy is one of character, discipline and dedication to young people while showing them it is fine for a tough guy to show love and kindess at the same time.

Thank you, Coach Bell.

I love you too....

How President Biden can Fight Inflation

What follows is my Op-Ed in today's Orlando Sentinel

___

Readers of this paper who are under the age of 50 do not recall the last time the United States experienced a rapid increase in the price of, well, everything. 

Recently the latest inflation data was released, and the report was staggering.  Last month, prices rose by 7% - the largest increase since 1982.  This figure represents an acceleration of upward pressure on prices that has been taking place since the end of the short-lived, but severe 2020 recession. 

Left unchecked, every American who receives an increase in their wage or salary in 2022 better hope that it approaches double digits, otherwise they will only be able to say, “Thanks for cutting my pay” to their employer. 

Yet, it does not have to be this way.   There are steps the Biden Administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank can take today to prevent a disastrous repeat of the 1971-82 period when a new term, “stagflation” reared its ugly head. 

Inflation takes place when the demand for goods and services increases at a faster pace than suppliers can produce.  Stagflation occurs when the overall supply of goods and services declines.   Stagflation is the worst of all economic evils because when supply falls throughout a nation it not only pushes up prices, but it also leads to a recession and higher unemployment. 

What we are seeing today is, for now, demand increasing extremely fast while supply is slightly falling, or depending on the sector, barely increasing. 

This problem has been created by several sources.   

First, the Trump and Biden Administration, to fight the economic dislocation caused by the pandemic, sent out trillions of dollars in stimulus checks, whether you needed it or not, to boost demand and shore up consumer and business confidence.  That coincided with drastically expanded unemployment benefits and monthly tax credits paid out to families, even if their finances were on solid footing. 

Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve Bank, adjusting for inflation, has provided the nation with negative interest rates throughout 2021 and today.  If you have a 3% mortgage payment, with inflation of 7% you are paying negative 4% interest to your bank.   This has help fuel an explosion in home buying like the pre ‘Great Recession’ binge of the early 2000’s. 

On the supply side of the equation, both Presidents Trump and Biden have fueled rising input costs of production with their economically absurd foreign trade policies.  Neither of these gentlemen have subscribed to the centuries-old belief that free trade leads to economic growth, prosperity, and lower inflation because of a steady flow of products and competition. 

Instead, we have seen an increase in tariffs on most of our trading partners which forces them to raise prices while allowing American companies, who now have less competition, to follow suit with their own increase in prices. 

Moreover, economists keep pointing out the  dramatic expansion in government spending has led to historic reductions in the labor force.  In many cases, throughout 2021, government benefits paid far more than work so people simply pulled out of the labor market.  This further decreased the supply of goods and services and has contributed to our current state. 

It cannot be overstated that the pandemic has led to supply chain issues that neither Trump nor Biden could have foreseen or fixed quickly.  Yet, there are some things that President Biden could do now to help 2022 look more like the previous 40 years. 

First, he must avoid pushing for an even greater expansion of government spending that creates disincentives for people to work.   Second, he needs to reverse Trumps’s anti-immigration stance and make it far easier for people to enter the country join the labor force. 

Third, his current regulatory agenda that has drastically increased the rules, paperwork, and expense of owning a business must be reined in.   Every new regulation is a cost.  Every cost gets paid for when we go shopping. 

Fourth, unlike his predecessor, Mr. Biden needs to openly work with the Federal Reserve (see Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker) to raise interest rates now – and by a large enough amount to slow the irrational growth of demand we are seeing. 

Whether Mr. Biden has the political courage to do this is uncertain. 

What is certain is that if he does not, this decade is going to look a lot like the 1970’s - and no one should want that. 2 Orlando Sentinel

The Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth

On May 2, 2018 I was standing in the third base coaching box in the bottom of the 7th inning of the Legacy Charter High vs. Masters Academy playoff game.

We were losing 8-0 and were a couple of outs away from a likely season-ending loss.

My oldest son, and Legacy's captain, Gehrig Chambless was in the batters box getting ready to come to the plate for the last time in his high school career and the last time he and I would be on the field together as father and son.

I had been his coach for virtually every season since 2006 from the TFA Royals, through Winter Garden Little League and Legacy High School.

I remember how excited Gehrig was to get his first uniform - #14  - when he was 7 years old.  He loved being on a team and having official games.  his first game ever he stood out in right field and practiced his swing.

Before he took his last swing in 2018 I noticed that he was wiping his eyes and had his head down.

Slowly, he turned and began walking all the way out to where I was standing.

When he got to me it was clear he was shedding tears.   He looked at me and said, "Thanks for coaching me all these years...." and then he gave his dad and coach an unforgettable hug.

On April 19, 2020 I retired from coaching baseball.  That night Gehrig and I, along with his mom and brother, watched 'Field of Dreams' for probably the 15th time.   

It was the last movie Gehrig and ever watched together and one that is especially meaningful to me now.

Every time the ending of this movie plays out, I weep like I am seeing it for the first time.   When Kevin Costner says, "Dad....you wanna have a  catch?"   I always - like any other American son - pictured that being me and my dad.

The last time Gehrig and I played catch as father and son was in 2019.  Strangely, we got to be all by ourselves on his high school field and we played catch for a longer period of time than we ever had.  I did not want that evening to end.  I knew that would most likely be our last time together on a baseball field.  As we walked off together I hope he felt how special that time was to me.  I hope it was to him.  

Gehrig died on April 26, 2020.   Bizarrely, I new see myself in the Kevin Costner role but instead of seeing my dad slowly turn and realizing it is him it is actually, in my mind, my son.  I can picture in my mind the image of him in his catcher's gear, youthful, strong and free of the troubles that come as we get older.

Lou Gehrig once said - even as he was facing his own early death - that he felt like "the luckiest man on the face of the Earth."

I feel like I was the luckiest dad and coach on the face of the earth to have Gehrig Chambless as my son and player.

And wish I could see him on Earth one more time, in his catcher's gear and say to him, "Gehrig, would you like to play catch?"  

I think he would love to.....